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Ndërhyrjet fantastike të Berishës, por ishte i pafat ndaj Juves (Video)

Lazio u eliminua nga Kupa e Italisë, por Etrit Berisha mund të krenohet me paraqitjen e tij.

Portieri shqiptar ishte njeriu kryesor i kryeqytetasve në sfidën ndaj Juventusit dhe me intervenimet e tij bëri që Biancocelestët të mos pranonin më shumë gola.

Ai fillimisht ndali një goditje të të rrezikshmit Paul Pogba në pjesën e parë. Më pas, gjatë pjesës së dytë, ndali goditjen e Moratas që më pastaj Simone Zaza dështoi të shënonte nga afërsia.
Berisha intervenoi edhe me rastin e golit, mirëpo topi i goditur nga Stephan Lichtsteiner e kishte kaluar vijën fatale.

Gardiani shqiptar e mbajti në lojë Lazion deri në fund duke ndalur tentativat e Mandzukic e Dybala, por i gjithë mundi i tij nuk u shpagua pasi bashkëlojtarët e tij nuk u treguan efektivë në fazën e sulmit. /Telegrafi/

Federata zyrtarizon dy miqësoret e Kombëtares

Federata Shqiptare e Futbollit ka zyrtarizuar dy miqësoret e muajit nëntor të kombëtares së Shqipërisë.

Pas shumë ndryshimesh në listën e rivalëve të mundshëm, Sekretari i Përgjithshëm, Ilir Shulku ka konfirmuar ndeshjen e parë kundër Kosovës, e cila ashtu siç ishte parashikuar do të luhet më 13 nëntor në stadiumin e Prishtinës, e parashikuar ne orën 14:00.

Tre ditë më pas, kuqezinjtë e drejtuar nga Xhani De Biazi do të luajnë kundër Gjeorgjisë. Për këtë sfidë, kombëtarja shqiptare kthehet në stdiumin “Qemal Stafa”, teksa ndeshja është vendosur të zhvillohet në orën 20:00. /albeu.com/ http://sport.albeu.com/sport/federata-zyrtarizon-dy-miqesoret-e-nentorit/219141/

Juventusi merr një shqiptar

Pasi humbi në verë duelin me Interin për shërbimet e Rey Manaj, Juventusi kërkon një tjetër talent shqiptar të cilin thuajse e ka blerë.17-vjeçari Fabio Sakaj do të transferohet verën e ardhshme në radhët e bardhezinjve për ta nisur nga sektori i të rinjve aventurën e re. Sakaj ka luajtur disa ndeshje me Modenan jo si titullar, por në minutat e fundit të takimeve dhe paraqitjet e tij kanë rënë në sy me Juventusin që ka lëvizur menjëherë për të bllokuar lojtarin shqiptar me origjinë nga Lezha. Zonja e Vjetër ka disa të rinj shqiptar në sektorin e të rinjve.

Arbitrage Betting: Finding a Sure Bet is Not Easy Money

What sports bettor doesn’t dream about an amazing run of back to back wins for weeks on end? Well, there is one way to guarantee a profit while placing bet, arbitrage betting. Arbitrage sports bets are otherwise known as sure bets. That is because no matter the outcome of a certain event or match, the punter is guaranteed a profit. Yes, this is legal and is not cheating.
Arbitrage is a financial term which means to make a risk-free profit. In the world of finance it is done by taking advantage of pricing imbalances in markets. This is used often in currency exchange markets, but can be applied to anything where several trades can be executed simultaneously such as bonds, derivatives, commodities, and stocks. With electronic trading, there are computer programs continuously looking for these instant guaranteed profit opportunities. Arbitrage hunters actually help to correct the market and make it more ‘efficient’ by correcting price disparities often within seconds after they occur.
The same opportunity exists in the sports betting world. Think of the odds offered by bookmakers as prices on a certain outcome. Since different bookmakers often times offer different odds, arbitrage opportunities sometimes arise where bettors can take advantage of price disparities in the odds, where no matter the outcome of an event, the bettor is guaranteed a profit.
Sounds too good to be true doesn’t it? Well, there is a catch. It takes work to find the opportunities and a bit of practice to make sure that you are proficient enough not to make the wrong series of bets, that may increase your risk, or worse, rather than guaranteeing you a profit, guaranteeing a loss. The profit margins on these bets tend to be low, but again, they are guaranteed. It is considered ‘found’ or free money if you can identify a sure bet.

How Arbitrage Guarantees Profit

There is a mathematical way to view arbitrage through formulas; however, sometimes variables can make your head spin and complicate something that really is quite simple to understand. I don’t want you to be intimidated as it is something that is fairly elementary in concept.
I will start out with a simple illustration and follow it with the formulas; the math will hopefully be more intuitive this way. For this example, we will look at only two possible outcomes (win or loss). We will use theoretical odds offered by two different cricket bookmakers, Bookmaker A and Bookmaker B. Again, this is the most basic example, but it can be applied to multiple outcomes and multiple bookmarkers.
Let’s say we have an IPL cricket match between the Chennai Super Kings and Mumbai Indians with only two possible outcomes Kings Win or Indians Win.

Outcome	Bookmaker A	Bookmaker B
1: Chennai Super Kings Win	1.5	1.75
2: Mumbai Indians Win	2.5	2

I will say first that there is an arbitrage opportunity in this scenario. I will show you later how to find it.
In order for arbitrage to be possible, we must create a betting scenario where the payout in either outcome is the same and where the total bets required equal less than the guaranteed payout.
In this scenario, if I place a £100 bet on a Chennai Super Kings Win at Bookmaker B with odds of 1.75, the payout will equal £175. If I bet £70 at Bookmaker A on a Mumbai Indians Win with odds of 2.5, that will also give me a payout of £175.
Notice that in this scenario I have made two bets for a total of £170 (£100 + £70), but in either outcome I will receive £175. This guarantees me a profit of £5 for every £170 invested. This is a risk free profit of 2.9%. Hey, I never said the profit margins would be huge, but they are guaranteed!
Keep in mind that is a 3% return for the time period until the match concludes. So, if take the position the day of the match, that is a 3% return for the day. That is an annualized return of over 1000%. Again, risk free!!
See our Arbitrage Tool (excel spreadsheet) to see how this example works. You can change the odds to show different outcomes.
This is another way to look at the investments and payouts:

	Kings Win	Indians Win
Total Investment	£170 (£100 + £70)	£170 (£100 + £70)
Payout	£175	£175
Profit/Loss	£5 Profit	£5 Profit

Arbitrage and Profitability Formulas

As I said before, I wanted to show how the concept of arbitrage worked first before getting into the math. If you were never good at advanced math, don’t worry, it isn’t has hard as it may look. Just keep reading. I will explain everything.
We will refer to this table of variables when showing the formulas (seriously, keep reading):

Variable	Explanation
s1	Stake in outcome 1
s2	Stake in outcome 2
o1	Odds for outcome 1
o2	Odds for outcome 2
p1	Payout of outcome 1
p2	Payout of outcome 2

Bookmaker Profit Margin

To find out IF a bookmaker’s odds are profitable for them, we can use the following equation:

o₁^-1 + o₂^-1 > 1

Another way to say this is the “sum of the inverse of odds” must be greater than 1 for the sports book to be profitable. If it is not, the sports book stands to lose money on its own odds. In fact, there would an arbitrage opportunity using the odds of both outcomes by the same sports book. Don’t count on that ever happening as a sports book that made a habit of it would go out of business very quickly.
So, let’s see if Bookmaker A is profitable using the odds above. Outcome 1 Odds = 1.5, Outcome 2 Odds = 2.5

1.5^-1 + 2.5^-1 = 1.0667

1.0667 > 1

Since the sum of the inverse is greater than 1, we know that Bookmaker A will be profitable for the bets they are offering.
Now let’s find out the actual profit margin of Bookmaker A. Bookmakers purposely price their odds in a way so that they take a cut for their services; after all, they need to eat too. Typically, you will find that the margins are between 8 – 12%. To find their margin on an event, you will need the following formula:

1 – (o₁ x o₂)/(o₁ + o₂) = Bookmaker Event Profit Margin

Looking back to our initial example, let’s find the profit margin of Bookmaker A. In this case Outcome 1 was a Super Kings Win with odds of 1.5. Outcome 2 was an Indians Win with odds of 2.5.
So, to find the profit on this event for Bookmaker A, we will use the following calculation:

1 – (1.5 x 2.5)/(1.5 + 2.5) = .0625 or 6.25%

This means that Bookmaker A will expect to earn a profit margin of 6.25% on the match up.

How to Find an Arbitrage Opportunity

In the same way that we found out if bookmaker was profitable using the equation:

o₁^-1 + o₂^-1

The difference here is that we want the “sum of the inverse” to be LESS than 1. Notice that in this case we are comparing the odds of two Bookmakers as we are assuming that both are offering their own odds which are profitable for them. However, if you ever find a bookmaker that is not profitable, where the sum of the inverse of their own odds is less than 1, then there is an arbitrage opportunity using the odds on both outcomes offered by that same bookmaker.
Again, using the same example before:

Outcome	Bookmaker A	Bookmaker B
1: Chennai Super Kings Win	1.5	1.75
2: Mumbai Indians Win	2.5	2

Let’s use the odds of Bookmaker B for outcome 1 (1.75) and the odds of Bookmaker A for outcome 2 (2.5).

1.75^-1 + 2.5^-1 = .0971
.0971 < 1

Since the sum of their inverse is less than 1, this indicates that an arbitrage opportunity is present.

How to Guarantee Profits Using Arbitrage

Now that we have identified an arbitrage opportunity, let’s take advantage of it. We know it will be profitable to bet on a Super Kings Win at Bookmaker B while also betting on an Indians Win at Bookmaker A.
Remember, as explained before, in order for it to be arbitrage, we must guarantee equal payouts for all outcomes, where the bets required are less than this guaranteed amount.
Let’s bet £300 on the Super Kings Win at Bookmaker B. This would give us a payout of £525 (£300 x 1.75) if the Super Kings won. Now we want to place a bet that will yield a payout of £525 if the Indians win using the odds from Bookmaker A.
To find out what we will need to bet for Stakes 2, simply use the following calculation:

p₁ / o₂ = s₂ => (£525/2.5) = £210

So, we would bet £300 on a Super Kings Win with Bookmaker B and £210 on an Indians Win with Bookmaker A for a total of £510. No matter the outcome of the event, whether the Kings win or the Indians win, we will receive a payout of £525 for a guaranteed profit of £15.

I Never Said it was Easy

As I mentioned before, sure bets require a bit of practice and work to find them. As you noticed the profit margins are also not very large, typically they are around 4%, but remember that is an annualized return of 1200%. If you could accomplish this everyday you would end up with a tidy profit. However, the opportunities are not always obvious and quickly go away as punters take advantage of the opportunity.
The key is that you must make both bets simultaneously. If you don’t, you risk the odds changing from your first bet to the second bet which can destroy your opportunity. This element of risk would disqualify it from being arbitrage.
Keep in mind that you can also use this with naked bets (bets that only count on one outcome) if you decide to hedge later on. If you took a bet earlier in the week on the Kings for 1.75 but you are losing confidence in your bet, you can lock in profits if you find favorable odds, instead of risking your entire first bet.

Using this as a Hedge, Not Arbitrage

You can also use it to partially hedge an outcome, where instead of betting so that you will receive the same payout in either case, you partially cover your downside by betting less. However, that of course would not be arbitrage as it is not guaranteed profit.
An example of this would be as follows: suppose you placed a £300 bet on the Kings to beat the Indians using the same odds as before of 1.75. Now, let’s say that later on you find odds of 2.5 for the Indians to win. As we found out before, there is sure bet opportunity if you want it because of the favorable odds, but if you only want to cover part of your total £300 risk, you can bet any amount below £210 on the Indians at the 2.5 odds which will cover your losses if the Kings don’t win. Let’s say you bet $100 on the Indians to win.

	Kings Win	Indians Win
Total Investment	£400 (£300 + £100)	£400 (£300 + £100)
Payout	£525	£250
Profit/Loss	£125 Profit	£150 Loss

Notice that if you stuck with your original bet of £300 on the Kings and they lost, you would lose all £300, whereas with this hedge you will only lose £150. However, if the Kings win, instead of winning £225 in profit, you only win £125. In this case, you reduced your upside, but also reduced your potential downside, which is known as hedging your bet. Whether you use hedges or not has to do with your personal betting strategy how you want to utilize it.
If you still need some more help, be sure to see our Arbitrage Tool (excel spreadsheet) which might help you get a better idea of how it works.

The Real Catch

Because of the terms and conditions of most bookmakers, there is never any truly risk free profit. Most reserve the right to cancel bets at any time before the event. This means that if you made an arbitrage bet between two bookmakers and Bookmaker A cancels, it leaves you wide open to the full risk of the bet you placed at Bookmaker B. If you can find two sites that don’t have these terms, you will be able to do it, but good luck with that as they likely do not exist. At least we haven’t found any that do.
Note: The bookmakers reserve this right to protect themselves from unbalanced odds on their own books by canceling bets and refunding wagers. However, bookmakers rarely cancel bets as this rightly upsets their customers and lowers their reputation. It only occurs in extreme situations where they have made a huge miscalculation with their odds.

Formulas and Maths Of Arbitrage

Arbitrage. An Arbitrage or Arb, is a transaction that takes advantage of price differences offered by different bookies and betting exchanges for the same event. The event may be a tennis game, football match or even a television talent show, but whatever the event, we only need prices offered by bookies to differ slightly in order to place a profitable Arb. No-matter what the subject of the Arb,  we need to find prices offered which allow us to Dutch the market of an under-round book, in order to make a guaranteed profit.

On this web page Over-round, under-round Making a book Arb a Win market spreadsheet New Arb Each Way spreadsheet

The Basics.  Odds as a percentage.
To recognize an Arb, we need to understand odds expressed as a percentage.

To calculate the percentage of your odds, divide the decimal "Betfair" odds into 100.
For example, we know that even money is a 50 - 50 chance, so evens should equal 50%.
Decimal "Betfair" odds for even money is 2.0.
100 divided by 2 = 50%

To calculate the percentage of fractional odds, add 1 to your odds and divide into 100.
For example, evens (1/1) + 1 = 2.0
100 divided by 2 = 50%

Another example, 3/1 + 1 = 4.
100 divided by 4 = 25%

Over-round and under-round of a book.
An Arb situation exists when the odds available from a selection of bookies allow us to place bets covering all outcomes of an event, and the odds obtained for our bets give us an under-round book.

Over-round or under-round is calculated by expressing all the odds of an event as a percentage, and adding them together.
If the total is more than 100%, the book is over-round, if less than 100%, the book is under-round.

The simplest Arb is an event with just 2 possible outcomes, such as a tennis match, where a draw is virtually an impossibility - either one player or the other will be declared the winner.
Other Arbs may involve 3 outcomes such as a boxing or football match which involve 2 wins and a draw, or an event with many outcomes such as a television talent show.

Making a book.
For example, a horse race has runners priced at evens, 3/1, 4/1 and 9/1.
1/1 is 2.0 in decimal odds, so 100 / 2 = 50%
3/1 is 4.0 in decimal odds, so 100 / 4 = 25%
4/1 is 5.0 in decimal odds, so 100 / 5 = 20%
9/1 is 10.0 decimal odds, so 100 / 10 = 10%
Adding all those percentages together gives 105%.  Our book is 5% over-round.
If we only had evens, 3/1, and 4/1, our book would be 95%, so would be 5% under-round.

Arb example.
Suppose we were interested in a tennis match.
We could look at a selection of bookmakers and compare the odds on offer :-

Bookmakers	Player A	Player B	Book %
Lads	Evens (2.0)	4/5 (1.8)	50 + 55.56 = 105.56%	Over-round
Hills	Evens (2.0)	4/5 (1.8)	50 + 55.56 = 105.56%	Over-round
Tote	Evens (2.0)	4/5 (1.8)	50 + 55.56 = 105.56%	Over-round
Coral	6/4      (2.5)	8/13 (1.61)	40 + 62.11 = 106.56%	Over-round

In this fictitious event, Coral take a slightly different view of the outcome.
Although each bookie has an over-round book of 105% or 106%, we can bet UNDER-round by betting with different bookies and obtaining odds of 6/4 (2.5) and 4/5 (1.8).
Those odds give a percentage of 40 + 55.56 = 95.56 which is under-round by 4.44%.

We can eliminate gambling and make a guaranteed profit on this match by Dutching both outcomes for an equal profit, no-matter what the outcome.
Whether Player A wins or Player B wins in irrelevant.
Get this right, and you cannot lose.
This is the equivalent of an "All Green Screen" on Betfair.

There is no need to learn any complicated math's in order to Dutch or Arb.
An Excel spreadsheet can easily work out stakes as fast as you can type, and will also eliminate mathematical errors.

Note that this spreadsheet limits your Total Stakes to a set £ amount.
In order to keep the Total Stake at a set amount input by the user, this spreadsheet does not use the percentage calculations described above.

Excel spreadsheets are a quick and reliable way of doing calculations. You can build a spreadsheet using the percentage formulas above, or purchase an excellent spreadsheet here for only a fiver. Be A Bookie spreadsheet. You will need Excel 2000 or a later version to view this spreadsheet.  Watch an on-line demo of the Be_A_Bookie spreadsheet This Be A Bookie spreadsheet calculates the lay stakes required to Lay up to 25 selections to an equal liability. You could of course use this spreadsheet for any event other than horse racing. A 2nd spreadsheet within this Excel file calculates the bet stakes required to bet up to 25 selections to an equal profit. Input the amount of your Total Payout, and as you input the odds of your selections, the spreadsheet shows :- Total payout on any winner remaining constant at your original input. The Lay stake or bet stake required for each runner. Equal liabilities or profit against each runner. Liability on each runner reducing as more runners are Layed. Profit on each runner that you have Bet. Percentage of your book at all stages. Total of Lay stakes at all stages - - - the "Skinner" amount. OR, total of bet stakes if you are betting. The more runners you Lay, the less your liabilities become. The more runners you Lay, the bigger the payout on a "Skinner" - a horse you haven't layed. The Betting spreadsheet can be used for Arbitrage of any event. Bet all runners for a book percentage that is less than 100% and you have guaranteed winnings with zero risk. These zero risk trades are available daily.

Is Arbitrage Worthwhile Pursuing? Is Arbitrage Legal?

Arbitrage is ‘Sure Betting’

In the world of sports betting the art of arbitrage involves wagering on both or all sides of an event with the right combination of odds and stakes in place to make a profit whatever the outcome of that event.

Image: 3Dmask (Shutterstock)

The principle of arbitrage is ‘sure betting‘, supposedly with minimum risk (for the seasoned arbitrageur) and long-term, guaranteed profits.
Surely this is the closest you can come to attaining the “Holy Grail” in betting? Or maybe not?
Despite the apparent rewards on offer the number of worldwide professional sports arbitrageurs is in the low tens of thousands, not more. In comparison, the German stock market employs over 3,200 staff, whilst one of the largest providers of automated arbitrage services, RebelBetting has even fewer subscribers than this number (as we write).
So, why such a relatively small group of customers taking advantage of the so-called ‘guaranteed’ gains averaging between 1.5% and 3.5% per bet (a typical ‘arb‘ provides around 2.5%), with perhaps 15-25% potential profit on the capital employed each month? That’s a far higher reward than any bank, building society, or share dividend offers!

Is Arbitrage legal?

There is no question that arbitrage is legal because the arber is simply exploiting price differences in the market, effectively buying and selling (bets) as any trader does. There is nothing illegal about this.
However, it is understandable that bookmakers are not fond of arbers. Every company has the right (even arbitrarily) to decide who their customers should be and many bookmakers prohibit arbers from their books. As soon as suspicion is aroused bookmaker accounts are quickly limited or even closed.

High Capital Requirement and Personal Characteristics

Successful arbitrage betting ultimately guarantees small returns but the sacrifice is that the process requires large funds. The money is tied-up in the venture for a potentially long period of time.
Pursuing an average 2.5-3.0% profit per betting round and targeting a return of 15-25% of the capital employed per month, the ‘arber’ needs, for example, a starting bank of at least 25,000 € in order to make 5,000 € profit per month.
Wow! A lot of money required at the start to make it worthwhile, and entering the arbitrage arena on these terms will be impossible for many.
Of course, arbitrage betting is a pretty safe investment, but in addition to substantial funds it requires not only great expertise but also some strong personal characteristics to make it possible at all:

• Many time-consuming calculations must be performed. Ouch, lots of maths!
• Clear and complete records of every transaction must be kept. How boring!
• Discipline and consistency has to be maintained at all times. Far too unsocial!

And lastly, a really stable, reliable and fast internet connection is essential, without any limitations to any bookmaker or exchange worldwide.
However, the average punter is perhaps not such a ‘professional’ investor, but bets for fun and/or the excitement of watching an event knowing that money is riding on the outcome. Of course, he hopes to profit from the wager but his are gambles, not investments. Is that the reason why there are so few ‘arbers’ out there and active in the market?